RED FLAG FOR TESLA Q2 EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS

EV Channels Review

This video provides a detailed forecast for Tesla's upcoming Q2 earnings report, highlighting a significant discrepancy between the analyst consensus and the presenter's own estimates, primarily due to the exclusion of a Bitcoin impairment charge by most analysts. The presenter argues that this omission inflates operating expenses in consensus forecasts, making Tesla's actual performance appear closer to expectations than it truly is. Key takeaways include the expectation of increased average selling prices driven by a shift towards higher trims (Long Range, Performance) and a change in model mix (more Model S/X, less Model 3), as well as the impact of production shutdowns in Shanghai. The presenter anticipates a lower automotive gross margin than consensus due to the ramp-up of Gigafactories in Berlin and Texas, but believes the market will focus more on Tesla's future outlook regarding supply chain, 4680 battery production, and factory ramps rather than the Q2 numbers themselves, which are considered a 'write-off quarter' due to various charges.