THE 4 MILLION EV FANTASY | AUTO EXPERT JOHN CADOGAN

EV Channels Review

John Cadogan critically analyzes the Australian Energy Market Operator's (AEMO) revised forecast for EV adoption in Australia, significantly downgrading their prediction from 7 million to 4 million EVs by 2034. Cadogan expresses skepticism towards AEMO's modeling, highlighting its volatility and questioning the competence of the organization. He argues that the current growth rate of EV sales in Australia, around 1.4% for the first eight months of 2024, is far from the sustained 27.5% annual growth required to meet AEMO's target. Cadogan points out that government incentives, while boosting sales initially, do not guarantee long-term sustained growth and are costly. He contrasts this with the organic and strong growth of diesel vehicle sales, which consumers are actively choosing without subsidies. The review concludes that the push for EVs, driven by ideology rather than practical reality, is unrealistic and potentially detrimental to civilization, as a world without hydrocarbon energy would revert to a pre-industrial state.