U.S. CAR MARKET TO SHRINK, THANKS TO DEMOGRAPHICS - AUTOLINE EXCLUSIVES

EV Channels Review

This Autoline Exclusives episode features Mark Gottfredson, a partner at Bain & Company, who presents a stark demographic analysis suggesting a significant contraction in the U.S. new vehicle market by 2030. Gottfredson argues that declining population growth, a later licensing age for younger generations, and a shift towards shared mobility services like Uber will drive annual sales down to potentially 13.5-14 million units, a figure significantly lower than current industry forecasts. He highlights that U.S. population growth is almost entirely sustained by immigration, and any reduction in migration rates, coupled with an aging domestic population, will accelerate this decline. The analysis also touches upon the impact of electric vehicles on scrappage rates and the broader trend of automakers insourcing, which is challenging suppliers. Gottfredson's core message is a wake-up call for the industry, urging a move away from optimistic sales projections towards scenario planning for a shrinking market.