TESLA Q1 DELIVERY ESTIMATES, PREVIEW, AND WILD CARDS (TSLA)

EV Channels Review

This episode of Tesla Daily focuses on the crucial Q1 2020 delivery and production estimates, providing a detailed breakdown of FactSet consensus figures for Model 3, S, and X, alongside the host's own projections. The reviewer highlights the importance of the FactSet consensus as a media benchmark, even if it differs from personal analysis. Key takeaways include the potential year-over-year growth despite a quarter-over-quarter decline, the impact of the Fremont factory shutdown on the production-delivery spread, and the significant uncertainties surrounding demand in the current macro environment. The host's personal delivery estimate falls between 85,000 and 91,000 vehicles, with a midpoint of 88,000. Beyond the numbers, the review emphasizes three critical "wild cards": Tesla's guidance for the year (with a prediction of reaffirmation of the 500,000+ vehicle target), updates on Gigafactory Shanghai's production capabilities, and initial delivery/production figures for the Model Y.