WILL TESLA BEAT DELIVERY ESTIMATES? Q2-21 FORECAST (TSLA)

EV Channels Review

This episode focuses on Tesla's Q2 2021 delivery and production forecasts, with the host, Rob Maurer, presenting his detailed projections. Maurer emphasizes production over deliveries, highlighting the May China production numbers (36,861 vehicles) and adjusting his June forecast to account for a holiday production impact, resulting in an estimated 101,383 units from Shanghai for the quarter. For Fremont, he forecasts 107,441 vehicles, factoring in successful Model Y ramp-up and the absence of Q1-like shutdowns, though acknowledging ongoing supply chain challenges. The overall Q2 production forecast stands at 208,824 vehicles, a significant 154% year-over-year increase. The review also touches upon Tesla Vision Autopilot updates, IIHS safety re-ratings restoring the Model 3's top pick status, a Giga Berlin injunction request rejection, and the Model S Plaid's performance at Pikes Peak. A potential red flag is raised regarding a forecast suggesting lower June deliveries from China than Maurer's production estimate, hinting at possible inventory build-up.