TSLA Q3 EARNINGS PREVIEW AND ESTIMATES

EV Channels Review

This episode provides a detailed preview of Tesla's Q3 2020 earnings report, focusing on financial forecasts and comparisons to Wall Street consensus. The presenter, Rob Maurer, meticulously breaks down revenue, gross profit, operating expenses, and earnings per share, offering his own estimates alongside compiled analyst data. Key discussion points include the significant impact of regulatory credit sales on automotive revenue and gross margins, with Maurer forecasting higher credit sales than consensus. He also delves into average selling price assumptions for various models, particularly the Model 3 and Model Y, and anticipates a substantial increase in stock-based compensation due to Elon Musk's performance plan, which is expected to suppress GAAP net income. While Maurer's free cash flow forecast is conservative, he highlights potential wildcards like deferred tax evaluation allowances. The review emphasizes the importance of automotive gross margin ex-credits for understanding operational leverage and Tesla's ability to lower ASPs for broader market access. The outlook for achieving the 500,000 vehicle delivery target for the year is also a key focus.