WILL TESLA BEAT DELIVERY ESTIMATES? (Q4-21)

EV Channels Review

Rob Maurer provides a detailed forecast for Tesla's Q4 2021 production and delivery numbers, aiming to predict whether the company will meet or exceed Wall Street's consensus. He meticulously breaks down expected production figures from both the Fremont and Shanghai factories, factoring in historical data, recent trends, and anecdotal reports. Maurer highlights that production is the key metric due to Tesla's supply constraints. His forecast anticipates a strong Q4 production, potentially reaching nearly 295,000 vehicles, which would bring the total year's production close to 919,000. He notes that this projection excludes potential contributions from the Berlin and Texas factories. For deliveries, Maurer forecasts around 286,600 vehicles, acknowledging that inventory fluctuations and the unwinding of the typical quarter-end delivery wave influence this number. The review also touches upon recent recalls for Model 3 and Model S, assessing their likely minimal impact on the stock. Overall, Maurer expresses confidence in Tesla's ability to achieve strong numbers, setting the stage for a potentially positive report.